The 2020 election could permanently change how America voteson October 20, 2020 at 11:00 am

Across the US, the number of Americans who vote by mail has been rising for years. In 2020, that number is skyrocketing and could potentially count for more than half of all votes cast, Hovland says.

He expects the benchmark number of mail-in votes to rise permanently in future elections: “You will see more masses that want to vote this way, who expect to be able to vote by mail or early. I think that jurisdictions absolutely will adapt their processes and their laws.”

Reasons for optimism

In the meantime, he says, the large number of early votes suggests that the election process is coping with heavy amounts of stress–despite concerns.

The pandemic was the reason for the mass switch to early and mail-in voting this time around. Experts worried that crowding at polling places would accelerate transmission of the disease; the idea is that expanding early voting options should spread out the vote–and the people–to reduce the risk.

The nationwide shortage of poll workers was another legitimate worry earlier in the year. But the first-ever national recruiting drive for poll workers has seen a huge response, says Hovland, even if exact numbers are not available. The potential emergency of unmanned polling places has not come to pass.

“Frankly, it’s going well,” he says. “We had about 140 million people vote for president in 2016. I saw predictions that may go as high as 150 or 160 million this year. When you think of that scale, it puts into perspective that some of the woes we hear about are very minor.”

This is an excerpt from The Outcome, our daily email on election integrity and security. Click here to get regular updates straight to your inbox.

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